HomeMy WebLinkAbout03 - Section 2 Aviation Demand Forecast - Century Plan - Airport Plan Element June 19982.0 AVIATION DEMAND FORECAST
2.1 General
Forecasts of aviation activity and the demand for various types of aviation services form the basis
for the planning of capital improvements at most airports. Such forecasts provide information on the
necessary configuration and strength of airfield pavements, the number of hangars required, the size of
terminal facilities, the types of fuel to be provided and on virtually all other aspects of an airports physical
plant. As such, the forecast of aviation demand is central to any airport master plan. Inherent to the
forecasting process is the determination of the time element or rate of growth since it is crucial to know
when a given type of improvements will be required.
Properly formulated, the aviation demand forecast can provide "triggers" for planning, design
and construction activities. The appropriate response to such triggers will insure that an airport has the
type and configuration of facilities that it sustain the growth objectives of its owners. Too much, too soon
and the airport becomes a financial burden. Too little, too late and potential users go to other airports
with the result decline in revenues and stagnation in growth.
There are many different methods for forecasting aviation demand, several of which will be
discussed later in this chapter. However, whichever method is selected it must be carefully tempered
with a strong knowledge of the local aviation market, a recognition of the characteristics of the airport
and an understanding of the objectives of the airport's policy setting body. Without these factors, the
most carefully crafted aviation demand forecast is useless and possibly even detrimental.
It must also be noted that demand forecasts project conditions as they might be. Actual facility
usage is generally dependent upon the actions that policy planners chose take or not take. For example, a
decision not to construct hangars or to set ground lease rates at levels greater than the local market
dictates can result in a given facility not achieving the full potential that a demand analysis predicts.
The provision of services such as fuel and maintenance are also crucial determinants in an airport
reaching or not reaching its full demand potential. Pro - active, attentive management is also very
important. Without the proper combination of all of the factors discussed above, even an airport in a
strong aviation market may not have the based aircraft population that might be projected on the basis of
market analysis alone.
As previously stated, the forecast of aviation demand forms the basis for all airport master plans
since such forecasts predict the usage of the airport and, in doing so, provide the basis for planning for
facilities improvements. Specifically, by estimating various indicators of aviation activity, the
appropriate type of facility improvements can be planned for and implemented.
Aviation demand forecasts normally begin with an analysis of existing conditions in terms of
numbers of based aircraft, flight operations by the various types of aircraft using the airport, and other
factors such as runway and taxiway usage and weather conditions. Generally, also included in the
analysis of existing conditions, is a review of historic socioeconomic information for the community that
the airport in question serves.
With current and historic data forming the basis for the analysis, a number of different techniques
may be used to project future demand for aviation services at the airport. These techniques generally
include statistical analysis and comparison with predicted state and national trends in aviation activity.
This section of the Georgetown Municipal Airport Master Plan provides forecasts of aviation activity
including the following parameters:
173261960507 2-1
Based aircraft by type
Numbers of aircraft operations, where an operation is defined as either a takeoff or a
landing. Operations are further classified as either being local or itinerant.
Number of operations per based aircraft
Peaking characteristics
The projections contained herein also provide guidance for determining the timing of proposed
improvements. Projections are provided for a twenty-year planning period which is divided into three
segments as follows:
Short Term - 1996 to 2000
Mid - Term - 2001 to 2005
Long Term - 2006 to 2015
2.2 Background Information
As previously stated, forecasted activity for the airport is based on past and current levels of
airport activity and on local socio- economic information. Historic and current data regarding based
aircraft and operations were provided by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Aviation
Division, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the City of Georgetown. Socio- economic
information is provided by the City of Georgetown, the Texas Water Development Board, and the Texas
Employment Commission.
The forecast also reflects detailed consideration of the record setting population growth currently
being experienced by Williamson County as well as current events in the local area such as the closure of
Austin's Robert Nlueller Municipal Airport (RMMA) and the opening of the new Austin - Bergstrom
International Airport (A -BIA), currently planned for 1999. Also to be considered is the recently raised
possibility of the closure of Austin Executive Airpark (Executive). The combination of statistical
analysis tempered with local knowledge and judgment insures that the resulting forecasts are both
technically supportable and reflective of local conditions.
2.3 Current And Historic Based Aircraft And Aircraft Operations
Comprehensive information about each airport in the United States is recorded by the FAA and
state aviation agencies on FAA Airport Master Record (Form 5010 -1). Although the FAA intends for
each airport to be inspected annually and an updated Airport Master Record published, an annual
inspection is not performed at every airport.
Airport Master Records are the primary source of airport activity data for airports without a
control tower such as Georgetown. Based aircraft and operations data from Georgetown's Airport Master
Records for 1985 through 1996 (the last 5010 available) were compiled and are presented in Tables 2 -1
and 2 -2.
173261960507 2 -2
TABLE 2 -1
BASED AIRCRAFT HISTORY
1985 -1994
3r Jingle nngme Y15Wn
ME Multi Engine Piston
TJ/TP Turbojet or Turboprop
Helo Helicopter
TABLE 2 -2
OPERATIONS HISTORY
1985 -1994
TYPE OF
OPERATION
•.
•; . ;� .: •:: .;. •.1 .. .. .. 0211 LOOT.
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
GA
11
1•
C a< s
F
s n
..,r :, �yy x
ti
fit« *` t' "fit
LOCAL
,4
v. MEMO
56,700
56,700
46,800 131,500
28,500
28,500
28,500
28,500 128,500
-.
• t` -
50,000
r. , �..
�ci•
ri�.{'?`"rr
.�i# i��`�'r
"aW�z^��
u v" • ;.
18,000
18,000
18,000
18,000
18,000
28,730
SUBTOTAL
105,000
108,200
108,200
178,000
152,500
46,500
46,500
46,500y�
46,500
46,5}00
y8�5,389 yq
AIR TAXI
800
800
1800
1800
1800
800
1800
1800
1873
800
800
......
. ,,.. �. -- _. -. _.. ....r; . o--- .,.,..• ..rac- ,..+w� ,. _ : n.:-
� ... +..... -.: ..+,..rw..
ter.
MILITARY
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
1700
1800
3r Jingle nngme Y15Wn
ME Multi Engine Piston
TJ/TP Turbojet or Turboprop
Helo Helicopter
TABLE 2 -2
OPERATIONS HISTORY
1985 -1994
TYPE OF
OPERATION
YEAR
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
GA
LOCAL
55,000
56,700
56,700
46,800 131,500
28,500
28,500
28,500
28,500 128,500
56,659
ITIN
50,000
51,500
51,500
31,200 121,000
18,000
18,000
18,000
18,000
18,000
28,730
SUBTOTAL
105,000
108,200
108,200
178,000
152,500
46,500
46,500
46,500y�
46,500
46,5}00
y8�5,389 yq
AIR TAXI
800
800
1800
1800
1800
800
1800
1800
1873
800
800
......
. ,,.. �. -- _. -. _.. ....r; . o--- .,.,..• ..rac- ,..+w� ,. _ : n.:-
� ... +..... -.: ..+,..rw..
ter.
MILITARY
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
1700
1800
700
873
TOTAL
OPERATIONS
106,500
109,700
109,700
79,500
54,000
48,000
48,000
48,000
48,000
87,062
,_;> .ea
_ q. „ra. � �,,,4«�� �• "'1.
•+ .tea
VrbA IU62 1U62 694 :)UU 500 489 517 511 511 415 655
GA General Aviation; includes all activity except scheduled air carrier service and military operations
Air Taxi On- demand, non - scheduled commercial operations which includes charter service
Military Operations conducted by military aircraft
Local Operations in the airport traffic pattern; to or from a practice area within 20 of the miles the airport; or practice instrument
approaches at the airport
Itin Itinerant operations, which are all operations not classified as Local
OPBA Operations per based aircraft; general aviation aircraft only
Source: FAA Airport Master Records (Form 5010 -1); Calculations by EH &A
17326/960507 2 -3
Based on information provided by the Airports management there are currently 133 based aircraft
at Georgetown Municipal Airport (GMA). These aircraft are categorized as follows:
Number of Aircraft
Single Engine Piston 109
Multi Engine Piston 12
Turbojet or Turboprop 12
Total 133
The best information on current operations at GMA is provided by a TxDOT study which was
conducted over a period from March of 1994 to February 1995. This study used acoustic recording
devices to count daily operations at the airport. A total of 42 days were included in the study in four
increments of approximately a week to ten days each. The sampling periods covered the range of
seasonal variations in airport traffic.
Based on the results of this study, a total of 87,062 annual operations were estimated to have
occurred in the study year. Taking an average between the 1994 based aircraft statistic from the FAA
Airport Master Record and the current aircraft population provided by the airport's management yields an
estimate of 123 based aircraft during the period that the TxDOT study was conducted. The number of
operations per based aircraft for the study period is calculated to be 711.
It is interesting to note that, even with the 10 percent allowance for sampling error cited in the
TxDOT study, the level of operational activity at GMA as estimated from TxDOT's acoustic counter
study is substantially greater than that estimated in the Airport Master Records from the late 1980s and
early 1990s. The greater number of total operations and operations per based aircraft is more closely
comparable to those statistics from the mid -1980s period during which a previous counter study was
conducted. It would seem that the latest acoustic counter study provides the most accurate information
regarding operations at GMA.
2.4 Georgetown Municipal Airport's Service Area
GMA service area was estimated using a technique developed by TxDOT's Aviation Division.
In this methodology a 25 miles travel distance is plotted on all major roadways surrounding the airport.
Where overlaps exist with the service areas of adjacent airports the overlapping area is proportioned on
the basis of the classifications of the airports in question. As an example, where the service area of
GMA, a general aviation airport, overlaps with that of RMMA, a primary commercial service airport,
RMMA would be assigned two- thirds of the overlapping area and GMA would be assigned the remaining
one - third. Such apportionment continues for all adjacent airports. Applying the above described
technique to GMA yields a service area comprised of the central segment of Williamson County. This
service area is illustrated in Exhibit 2 -1.
17326/960607 2-4
According to current FAA records there are 206 aircraft registered to owners with addresses in
Williamson County. It is estimated that the GMA service area covers approximately 75 percent of
Williamson County. Applying this factor to the total number of registered aircraft yields a total of
approximately 155 aircraft. Comparing this figure to the current based aircraft population at GMA of
133, shows that GMA is claiming in excess of 85 percent of the aircraft in its market area.
While the market area analysis is not rigorous and there are certainly many explanations for why
a given aircraft does or does not base at GMA, this technique gives a general indication of the success of
an airport in its estimated service area. In the case of GMA there is a clear indication the airport is, and
has been, successful in capturing its indicated share of the market.
2.5 Forecasting Methodologies
2.5.1 Linear Regression
Linear regression, one of the most commonly used statistical analysis techniques, describes and
quantifies the association between two variables. In statistics, a variable is a group of data. Variables are
either independent or dependent. The independent variable causes changes in or affects the dependent
variable, and this effect is what is described by the linear regression.
Linear regression information can be used to forecast the dependent variable. The assumption is
that the historical relationship between the two variables will continue into the future. The progression of
the independent variable (for example, years or a separately produced forecast of population) produces
corresponding values of the dependent variable (such as based aircraft).
A linear regression calculation produces a statistical value called the correlation coefficient, a
number that describes how well the variables are related to each other. The correlation coefficient is
expressed as a decimal less than 1 and it can be either positive or negative. The closer the coefficient is
to 1 (such as 0.99), the closer the relationship between the variables. If the value is positive, the set of
data would have an upward trend; a negative value would indicate a downward trend.
2.5.2 Top -Down Method
Another method to predict future data is by applying a statistical characteristic, such as the rate of
change, of state or national forecasts to local data. Known as the "top down" method, the separately and
independently produced forecasts are assumed to have the same effect locally as regionally and
nationally.
The FAA annually publishes a document which analyses historical and current information and
then forecasts many aspects of the aviation industry for the ensuing twelve years. The most recent of
these publications is the FAA Aviation Forecasts - Fiscal Years 1995-2006• These forecasts are based on
a set of assumptions, not the least of which is the outlook for moderate and sustained growth in the U.S.
economy.
The twelve -year economic outlook for the U.S. contained in the FAA's forecast document is
indicated by a forecasted growth rate of 2.5 percent annually in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Inflation is expected to be in the moderate range over the same period, and oil and gas prices are expected
to increase at a rate less than that for inflation. Global economic activity has recently been increasing and
is expected to continue to do so, adding additional strength to the economy of the U.S.
Nloreover, the FAA Forecasts also assume that recently enacted legislation limiting the liability
of manufacturers of general aviation aircraft will begin beneficially affecting the general aviation fleet in
the closing years of this century.
17326/960507 2 -6
The FAA Forecasts indicate that while there has been a dramatic decline in the manufacturing of
general aviation aircraft since the late 1970s, recent years have shown an increase in the primary use of
general aviation aircraft in the business and corporate categories. One of every four hours flown by
general aviation aircraft in 1993 was in these categories. All of the positive factors will, to some degree,
foster a growth in general aviation in the United States.
In addition to the FAA forecast, the Texas Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary prepared by the
TxDOT Aviation Division provides forecasts of aviation activity for the State as a whole as well as
various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA). This source predicts a moderate but steady growth over
the next ten years for most indicators of aviation activity.
2.6 Forecasts of Based Aircraft
2.6.1 Linear Regression Method Applied
Socio- economic information was collected and evaluated to determine its usefulness in
forecasting based aircraft. The information included county historical population and per capita income
data as presented in Section 1.0, Inventory. There were encouraging instances of statistical relationships
between the historical sets of data and based aircraft, but population of Williamson County was the only
set of data that included an independent forecast and the appropriate level of correlation.
Linear regression analysis performed on data from the recent past, specifically the period 1991 to
1995, shows excellent correlation between the population of Williamson County and the number of based
aircraft at GMA. The correlation coefficient between these data sets is 0.91 On the basis of this
correlation coefficient it is reasonable to assume a strong dependent relationship between based aircraft at
GMA and county population. The based aircraft forecast based on the linear regression analysis is shown
in Table 2 -3.
TABLE 2 -3
FORECASTS OF BASED AIRCRAFT
(Using County Population Projections)
2000-2015
r.
Population
Based -: Population
_fear
Scenario 0.502
Aircraft�y _ Scenario 1.00
Aircraft '
2000
187,154
135 _ ' 226,842
=?
2005 fi :
213,738
169: 287,126
-2015
271,701
244 : 433,858'44
7� "r
I Assumes a continuity in trends in the age, sex, and race /ethnicity net migration rates of the 1980s.
2 Assumes net migration rates one -half of those in the 1980s.
3 Growth scenarios are defined in Section 1.9
Source: Texas Water Development Board ; Espey, Huston & Associates, Inc.
It must be noted, however, that when the analysis is expanded to include data from the late
1980's the correlation coefficient is significantly smaller. This is demonstrated by the fact that the based
aircraft population at GMA peaked in the late 1980's while the county's population continued to show
only modest annual increases.
17326/960507 2-7
2.6.2 Top -Down Method Applied
As a means of comparison and as an expression of possible rates of growth of based aircraft at
the airport, three top -down data sources were examined. The techniques are:
• GDP The rate of growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is 2.5 percent annually,
has been applied to the number of based aircraft in 1995 through each of the planning time
frames.
• FAA FAA Aviation Forecasts includes a forecast of active general aviation aircraft by FAA
Region. The forecast for the Southwest Region indicates an essentially no- growth period from
1995 to 2000, then an increase of approximately one -half percent per year through 2006. This
FAA Southwest Region forecast has been applied to the number of based aircraft in 1995 for the
Georgetown forecast period.
• TxDOT TxDOT's Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary includes forecasts of based aircraft for
the Austin MSA and the State as a whole. For the period 1995 to 2005 the forecasted annual
growth rates for based aircraft in the Austin MSA and the State are both approximately 0.6
percent 0.6 percent which shows good correlation with the FAA projections.
Table 2 -4 shows the based aircraft data using these three forecasts.
TABLE 2 -4
COMPARISON OF FORECAST METHODOLOGIES
:Year
I Gross Domestic Product Growth
2 FAA Southwest Region Active GA Aircraft Forecast
3 TxDOT Texas Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary
Source: FAA Aviation Forecasts - Texas Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary 1988 -1993 Fiscal Years 1995 -2006
Espey, Huston & Associates, Inc.
2.6.3 Recommended Forecast
The based aircraft forecasts resulting from the top down analysis are very modest and do not
reflect the dynamic growth environment present in Georgetown. Nor do they reflect the changing local
aviation market in which potentially some 360 aircraft currently based at RMMA and Executive, 260
based aircraft and 100 based aircraft, respectively, will be required to move upon closure of these
facilities.
The forecasts based on population projections appear to more accurately reflect the potential at
GMA. As shown in Table 2 -3 using population Scenario 1.0 would result in a based aircraft population
of 454 at the end of the planning period. Given any reasonable level of operations per based aircraft, the
17326/960507 2 -8
GDP-1
:EAAl`
T.rDOV
2000
150
137
2005
170
136 r
141
.2015 >.,
218
147
I Gross Domestic Product Growth
2 FAA Southwest Region Active GA Aircraft Forecast
3 TxDOT Texas Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary
Source: FAA Aviation Forecasts - Texas Aeronautical Facilities Plan Summary 1988 -1993 Fiscal Years 1995 -2006
Espey, Huston & Associates, Inc.
2.6.3 Recommended Forecast
The based aircraft forecasts resulting from the top down analysis are very modest and do not
reflect the dynamic growth environment present in Georgetown. Nor do they reflect the changing local
aviation market in which potentially some 360 aircraft currently based at RMMA and Executive, 260
based aircraft and 100 based aircraft, respectively, will be required to move upon closure of these
facilities.
The forecasts based on population projections appear to more accurately reflect the potential at
GMA. As shown in Table 2 -3 using population Scenario 1.0 would result in a based aircraft population
of 454 at the end of the planning period. Given any reasonable level of operations per based aircraft, the
17326/960507 2 -8
airport would reach its long range planning capacity of 230,000 annual operations before it reached the
indicated based aircraft population. This would result in an increase in delays, a reduction in convenience
of use and, probably, a decreasing trend in based aircraft.
However, the forecast based on the TWDB's most likely population projection scenarios provides for a
healthy rate of growth, some 3 to 4 percent annually, and a reasonable 20 year based aircraft population
of 244 which would not crowd the airport's annual capacity. It is, therefore, recommended that the based
aircraft projection for GMA be primarily based on the linear regression analysis using the TWDB's
Scenario 0.5 for Williamson County population as the independent variable.
One change is, however, recommended. It may be noted from Table 2 -3 that the number based
aircraft projected for the year 2000 is 135. The use of that figure would indicate an annual growth rate of
less than one -half of one percent from the current based aircraft population of 133. Such a growth rate
does not seem reasonable considering the local aviation market and various private hangar projects
currently in progress at GMA. Accordingly, it is recommended that the short term based projection be
derived by using the current based aircraft population and the 3 percent annual growth rate. The 3
percent growth rate is the overall planning period average annual growth rate.
The recommended based aircraft forecast for GMA is provided in Table 2 -5 which follows.
TABLE 2 -5
FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT
Year
1996 (a)
2000
2005
2015
(a) Actual
2.7 Fleet Mix
Based Aircraft
133 (a)
150
169
244
The aircraft currently based at GMA include 109 single- engine piston (reciprocating) aircraft, 12
piston twins, 11 turboprop twins, and one jet, for a total of 133 based aircraft. There has been an
occasional helicopter on the field over the years.
Historically, the largest category of based aircraft has been single engine, ranging from
approximately 70 to 90 percent of the total. Of the multi - engine aircraft, recently there has been a change
from a majority of piston twins to an approximately even split between reciprocating and turboprops.
This evolution in GMA's based aircraft fleet composition has paralleled national trends, as evidenced by
the emergence of a higher proportion of turboprops and the continued wide use of single engine aircraft.
It can be expected that national general aviation fleet projections will apply at GMA in the future:
a large contingent of based single engine aircraft, a very small part of which will be helicopters; a
continued increase in the use of turboprops (which retain value and usefulness for business purposes);
and a small but stable proportion of jet business aircraft as well. The turboprops and jets are indicative of
population growth and a generally healthy business climate in Georgetown and Williamson County.
This translates to the following estimates of fleet mix for the planning period as shown in Table 2 -6.
17326/960507 2-9
TABLE 2 -6
PROJECTED FLEET MIX
YEAR SE W TP .TF.T
2000
80%
8%
7%
5%
....r+.rr_rge.a+-
.,+.a � +:c+,r- •.:w,:.+.r.ar.
:,,�.,.�nc+- w�*.n�..«ur
:- a,s�.r +-.w- :w-..nr:✓� -.
.:y:- w.�•. �.a.. -� -
2000
0
10%
10%
0
r:_•_w,..... .. ,�...ei� .�
•_�^ -w .:.. .....�..u. ..�. �. '. ...ay.—
..�n.�.a�'.riN.ee:�...r wr_;w ]
.��...+.IC'°... �.`s.Z..
.+HIh
�o
2015
7 0o
0
1
SE - Single Engine Piston
ME - Multi Engine Piston
TP - Turboprop
TJ - Turbojet
2.8 Forecasts Of Operations
2.8.1 Local And Itinerant Operations Forecasts
The historical information for Georgetown Municipal Airport, as recorded on FAA Forms 5010 -1
and shown on Table 2 -2, include both local and itinerant operations. Total operations per based aircraft
(OPBA) have been calculated for each year. Using this data the average numbers of local and itinerant
operations per based aircraft were also calculated. They are:
• Local - 357 OPBA,
• Itinerant - 271 OPBA, and
Total - 628 OPBA.
Although the based aircraft did not actually conduct all of the reported operations, one way of
forecasting future operations is by applying average operations per based aircraft to a projection of based
aircraft. Table 2 -7 shows the results of multiplying the average OPBA for Georgetown by the
recommended forecast of based aircraft for GMA. It should also be noted that the average operations per
based aircraft compares reasonably closely to the 711 value for same statistic calculated from TxDOT's
Acoustic Counter Survey.
TABLE 2 -7
FORECAST OF ANNUAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS
17326/960507 2-10
BASED
LOCAL
; ITINERANT
YEAR
AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS
i OPERATIONS
TOTAL
2000
150
53,550
40,650
94,200
2005
169
60,333
; 45,799
106,132
2015
244
87,108
66,124
153,232
17326/960507 2-10
2.8.2 Other Operational Activity
Historically, touch -and -go operations at Georgetown have constituted approximately 40 % of
total operations due to training conducted by locally based aircraft and by aircraft from other airports in
the region. However, as the level of total operations increases at Georgetown and the number of aircraft
in the traffic pattern grows, training activity will tend to gravitate to other less active area airports. The
proportion of touch - and -go operations will decline over time.
Transient operations are those conducted at Georgetown by aircraft based elsewhere. Training
operations and business flights into and out of Georgetown constitute the majority of transient operations.
While some of the transient training operations may occur at other less crowded airports as the overall
level of operations increase at Georgetown, attraction of business aircraft is an integral part of the
airport's service to the community. It is important to recognize the fact that airport facilities should be
provided to accommodate these aircraft. This usually means apron tiedown space over and above that
needed by based aircraft.
Operations by military aircraft are entirely transient, since there are no based military aircraft at
Georgetown. Historical records indicate a constant level of military activity over the past 10 years (700
operations annually) and this is not expected to change. Similarly, air taxi activity has been at a constant
level of 800 per year as reported by the FAA, and there is no reason to expect any change.
Peak aircraft operations are estimated to occur on weekends due to the relatively large proportion
of single engine aircraft in recreational and training use. This conclusion is supported by data from
TxDOT's recent acoustic counter study which showed peak activities by larger business -type aircraft tend
to occur at the beginning and end of the work week. On a national basis, the summer months are usually
the most active, and the same would be expected to be true at GMA. Again this conclusion is supported
by the results of TxDOT's acoustic study.
GMA peaking characteristics are estimated as shown in Table 2 -8:
TABLE 2 -8
FORECAST PEAKING CHARACTERISTICS
Peak a ea
Year Month Day Average Hour
2000
9,420
314
2
.+..!�.dcs., ..:�- ,...,v :.- .� -a.,. _ - ...:..,..Ra�....LL
2005
: :..+- ..,...rs: _ -•-. - .- .:,:+- r- �- .�.:....-..«q
10, 13
-- •• _.....�,..:.., +_ .:. _ _ _ _e!..-
353
_.v..�....w -_ __ _ _ 3s�_ w�...:�.
29
�
- -� �
2015
15,33
511
42
2.8.3 Scheduled Air Carrier Service
The aviation demand analysis in the Master Plan has been concentrated on general aviation
activity. This is entirely appropriate since this area of aviation service has been GMA's primary focus
since it first began operations. However, given the distance to the new Austin - Bergstrom International
Airport from the Georgetown area, it is possible that a small air carrier would offer service. It is likely
that smaller aircraft would provide such service with connections being made at the new Austin airport
although direct service to near markets is also possible.
17326/960507 2-11
While recognizing that a potential for the institution of air carrier service may exist, the City is
not actively pursuing scheduled air service. Accordingly, if a viable prospect for the provision of air
carrier service should emerge, it is recommended that the City's administration carefully evaluate the
potential benefits to the community resulting from the provision of such service versus possible costs
such as the provision of terminal facilities and associated adverse impacts such as increased air traffic. In
determining if cooperation with private interests to bring such service to Georgetown Municipal Airport
is warranted, due consideration must also be given to the fiscal practicality of the proposal and it's
consistency with the City Council's previous action regarding the limitation of the length of the primary
runway (18 -36) to 5,000 feet.
173261960507 2 -12